Chuck Todd Declares if the GOP doesn’t win pa-12 for the first time since 1972…

…it’s a sign of weakness in a swing district. In this he is reporting and repeating DCCC spin:

Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina firm, released a survey Monday showing Republican candidate Tim Burns leading Democratic candidate Mark Critz by only one point, 48 to 47. I noticed some conservative blogs reporting that Burns had “moved into the lead,” but that result actually represented a six-point bump for Critz and only a four-point bump for Burns since the last poll.

Somehow the Susquehanna poll showing Critz with a 6 point lead last week doesn’t fit into the template here.

The plan seems to be that if Critz wins it becomes a bellwether of how the republicans can’t win the races this year. The hotly contested senate race of national importance is apparently no excuse.

This is called laying the groundwork. And Todd & the Post are not the only players:

They blame the establishment, the insiders, the Beltway types, the incumbents—the people who are in charge. They tend on the whole to direct their ire at Democrats, because right now Democrats tend to be in positions of power. But for the most part their dissatisfaction is not ideological. They want someone who can make things better. And someone different is a start.

No matter what happens in tomorrow’s primaries—no matter who wins or who loses—this will be the message that voters are sending. Seriously. It won’t be about the Tea Party, or a progressive resurgence, or some new level of partisan polarization. It’ll be about plain old change.

although he underplays the ire at Democrats Newsweek’s Romano makes a point, if anyone read Newsweek they might even agree.

And it isn’t just today it has been throughout the cycle:

By preferring someone else to him, Pennsylvania Republicans had “forced out” Sen. Specter, Mr. Milbank said. If he loses to Mr. Sestak on Tuesday, will Mr. Milbank say Mr. Specter was “forced out” by Pennsylvania Democrats?

Will Ms. Vieira wonder out loud if a Specter defeat indicates the Democratic party “doesn’t have room for moderate voices?”

Will Mr. Matthews declare that Mr. Specter was the victim of a “Stalinesque purge?”

Meanwhile Brinkley sees the Dems playing the expectations game and talks about some strong reinforcements:

Lee is a “Gold Star Mother” whose son, a Navy SEAL, was killed in a 2006 firefight in Iraq. She praised Burns as “a candidate who understands and will uphold the Constitution and who recognizes the sacrifices our troops make.”

In the battle for Pennsylvania’s 12th District, Lee is one member of a veritable of army of volunteers fighting to elect a Republican to the seat held for more than three decades by the late Democrat John Murtha. For weeks, volunteers have stuffed envelopes, manned phone banks and walked precincts, and today they’ll make the final push to get their voters to the polls in a special election that many observers are calling a crucial test of whether the GOP can win back the House of Representatives in November.

I’ve met Debbie Lee twice, she is a powerful advocate. The question is will she be enough?