Posts Tagged ‘primary election’

One of the most important things a pol can do is to learn from mistakes.

The key reason why John McCain managed to win the nomination was the division among those who opposed him. McCain was clearly one of the least popular candidates among conservatives but the division of the conservative vote allowed John McCain to win with small relative percentages of the GOP vote.

Whatever Mitt’s faults on the leadership front on the brains and strategy front he is certainly first rate. I suspect he identified early the dynamics that would hurt him most:

1. Sarah Palin is the single biggest threat to his nomination in terms of a candidate

2. Romneycare is the biggest threat in terms of a policy

3. There are still plenty of people who consider Mormonism a cult who would vote against him in primary states

He also identified one huge benefit:

The establishment GOP hates and fears any Palin-like candidate and likes him.

So how do you manage to use these facts in your favor? Easy:

1. Use the MSM to neutralize Palin: Romney knows that he will need Palin supporters to defeat Obama in 2012, thus he can’t attack Palin directly thus he has used GOP proxies who are ostensibly not connected to him to do so. The media who hates Palin even more than GOP insiders are happy and thrilled to promote them any chance they get. Thus you get the narratives concerning Palin established while not dirtying your hands. The best example is the silence on her India trip while her mispronouncing of “skirmish” was news.

2. Support the Ringers: One of the oldest tactics in politics is to run a “ringer” to siphon off votes from an opponent. Right now if you look at the people running or “exploring” running you see quite a few strongly conservative folks. Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Newt, perhaps Huckabee, Haley Barbour and of course possibly Palin. All are popular with tea party people, evangelicals and social conservatives. For Mitt Romney to win the nomination that strongly conservative tea party vote needs to be divided. With enough strong conservatives in the race the primary vote will be divided. There is always a danger that one of these people will “break out” (Herman Cain in particular is a danger to do so as I’ve not found a conservative or tea party person who dislikes him) and become a really big threat, but as long as that doesn’t happen it’s in Romney’s interest to keep the smaller or regional candidates in the game since very few of the votes they will siphon off would be from him

Expect Romney’s biggest donors to be approached to help fund any candidate that he thinks will drain votes early in the primaries. Once that happens and the damage is done, or if any of them get enough momentum to become a threat the spigots will be turned off.

As far as I can see this is the path to the nomination for Mitt since he certainly isn’t busy hitting the administration on its policies. Of course the nomination won’t be enough, he has to actually win the general, so when all is said and done he will have to copy McCain in one other way, picking a strong conservative as a running mate to keep the tea party and conservative wing from leaving in disgust.

I visited every ward in Fitchburg to check on the turnout on Election day

My voting place Ward 6

As always the ladies were delightful

Checking the names

In every ward except ward 1 the turnout was reported as light, below avg. There were plenty of signs for Scott Bove who was my first choice for Sheriff (lost 52-48 in the dem primary to Tom foley) and people stood at ward 1 for him, but most of the turnout looked like this:

I think the contested race on the republican ballot hurt Bove, oddly enough there was a libertarian primary ballot with absolutely NOBODY on it.

The Ballots

My last stop was Ward 2, I had actually planned on stopping there later with my camera but I had time to kill while waiting for my son to finish golf practice. The ladies there were pretty much democrats and we talked for a bit. I told them about the travels of my hat, they asked me what I thought would happen in the election. They were not fans of Martha Coakley, John Olver or Sarah Palin although I did defend Sarah and they seemed to moderate. One thing they were united about was her daughter Bristol.

I mentioned how people where going after Palin because of her daughter getting pregnant and mentioned how I saw high school students attacking her for it back in 2008. To a lady they defended Sarah at this point and VERY strongly.

The gist was that you raise your children the best you could and taught them the best you could but you can’t make them make the right decisions. They had only venom for people who hit her on that. Each of those ladies had children and knew that those kids didn’t always hold up the side.

The point being that a room that was maybe 30-70 against Palin in Mass was 100% defending her when you went after her kids. If Democrats have 24 months to get this through their head.

Update: As for myself, my first thought when I see a young girl like that is “Is this wife material for my sons?” Stacy is right, she is as he calls her fine but if my boys brought her home I’d hesitate. It would be a tough slog to be raising another man’s kid at this stage in life. One mistake, even a big one doesn’t disqualify a young lady, and I’d wager I’d like her if I met her, but I’d ask my boys to think hard and soberly if by some miracle they came home with her on their arm.

You would think the candidate of a sitting president beating the candidate for a former president would not be big news. However this is the MSM and their anointed candidate is on the throne in office.

Robert Stacy McCain who has a highly attuned and refined BS detector is having none of it:

Really? I mean, really? The hand-picked establishment candidate won in the Colorado Democratic primary, while grassroots conservatives defeated the establishment pick in the GOP primary, and that’s good news for Democrats? That their party base is less fired-up than the Republican grassroots in a mid-term election where turnout is the name of the game?

He also points out that this is a defeat for John McCain, his advice?

Stop looking forward to 2012 – i.e., how did the Palin Factor play? — and focus on the here and now.

Don’t forget today.

Memeorandum thread here

Good news and good judgment in Ga-4 as Liz Carter wins the republican primary without a runoff she will face Hank Johnson who also won outright.

Given the demographics this won’t be an easy fight but even more dramatic than the difference between the two on the issues is the difference in energy. Liz Carter is one of the hardest working campaigners I’ve ever seen and will work even harder (if that’s possible) on the general election than she did on the primary. Hank Johnson has missed debates and forums and there are questions concerning his health, (how valid those questions are varies with who you are talking to).

Liz Carter seems to be the perfect candidate at the perfect time. A tireless worker willing to engage any voter and fight for her message at a time where the policies of the left are the least popular.

Anyone who thinks she can’t win this thing should go down to GA-4 and see what I saw. It won’t be easy but she can win this and it will take some serious effort by the DNC and Johnson to prevent her from doing so.