Posts Tagged ‘polls’

Morning Joe et/al is breathlessly reporting that the president’s number are up, that a slight majority favor keeping Obamacare and things are turning around for the pres.

The media is all over this but if you look at the actual report there is a set of numbers not getting play:

Q15 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.”) (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.”)
Strong Democrat ………………………….20
Not very strong Democrat ……………..11
Independent/lean Democrat …………..10
Strictly Independent………………………18
Independent/lean Republican …………11
Not very strong Republican ……………9
Strong Republican ………………………..12
Other (VOL) …………………………………7
Not sure …………………………………….2

So let’s get this straight, this poll of Registered (vs likely) voters that is showing the president’s numbers improving samples 31% democrats (or 41% counting learners) and 21% Republicans (32% counting learners). And you are judging national opinion on this? You are calling this news?

Think of it this way. If you had a poll on the popularity of the Red Sox vs the Yankees and asked 3 Guys from Boston for every 2 guys from New York City how would the Red Sox do?

This is what you call spin. The media manufacturing a story to create a bounce that doesn’t actually exist.

If people fall for this it is their own fault.

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My first meeting with Ann Marie Burekle was the day that Syracuse Post-Standard declared that she was down double digits. The poll itself was suspect but as my friend Robert Stacy McCain often says Polls aren’t elections. (this is what I constantly remind those who say Palin can’t win due to a poll that the election isn’t held today) That day Ann Marie said this:

(UPDATE video added)

Now forgetting that the poll was…shall we say interesting all that poll proved in the end was one (or both) of two things.

The Syracuse Post-Standard had an agenda

Ann Marie Buerkle worked incredibly hard and managed to turn it around in two weeks

I thought of that last night when I saw this story that leftist blogs have been jumping on:

New poll undercuts GOP claims of a midterm mandate

By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers

A majority of Americans want the Congress to keep the new health care law or actually expand it, despite Republican claims that they have a mandate from the people to kill it, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

I don’t know Steven Thomma, he may be a good writer and a nice guy and kind to animals but I know this much. He is trying to BS me and the left blogs are doing the same.

We just had an election where Republicans running against Obamacare won more seats than anyone has seen in over 50 years and you are trying to tell me there is no mandate because of your poll? As I left in comments:

Yeah all those 63 or 64 congressional seats mean nothing next to a POLL

how stupid do you think we are?

Apparently they think we are pretty stupid. Lucky for people who are not suckers we have Robert Stacy McCain at the American Spectator who isn’t buying it. His piece is called The Republican Mandate:

Those people did make a difference, and in the process made laughingstocks of pundits who said they couldn’t do it, chief among them E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post.

“It will be very hard for Republicans to take the House if they don’t break the Democrats’ power in the Northeast — and they still have to prove they can do that,” Dionne wrote five weeks before Election Day, in a column that featured this quote from Dan Maffei: “When we do retain the majority… people are going to look at the map and see that the Northeast held.” Dionne predicted: “Absent a Republican wave of historic proportions, [Maffei’s] seat now seems out of the GOP’s reach.”

Unfortunately for Maffei and Dionne, that “Republican wave of historic proportions” came crashing ashore Nov. 2 with enough power to flip six seats in New York into the GOP column. In addition to Buerkle’s hard-fought win in the 25th District, Republicans also captured previously Democrat-held seats in the 13th, 19th, 20th, 24th and 29th districts. New York’s six GOP pickups was the most of any state. Republicans gained five seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, while adding four seats in both Florida and Illinois. If such widespread victories are not a mandate for House Republicans to oppose the Democrats’ liberal agenda, whatever could be?

How did two guys in fedoras know to visit Ny-25 in October when EJ Dionne who unlike me doesn’t have to go door to door to business to pay for his radio show? We went there any saw for ourselves!

If you choose to believe Steven Thomma and McClatchy that is your prerogative. Just don’t expect us to believe or trust your opinion

And yes this will be a topic on Saturday.

Update: Put the actual video in

Tuesday at the debate I was talking Big Red Wave with an aide to a republican candidate for statewide office, although he was feeling highly confident on his local race when I said to him that the wave would be even bigger.

I started mentioning the anecdotal evidence I’ve seen in district after district he was unimpressed.

When I brought up Christine O’Donnell and Chris Coon’s sudden Volte Face he immediately dismissed me as ignorant and my opinion unworthy.

Well if all he sees are polls like this that’s one thing, but then there is stuff like this:

Yesterday, a poll went around showing Christine O’Donnell just five points behind Commie Coons in Delaware’s Senate race. This SORT OF explains the weird amount of time the White House has been spending in a slam dunk blue state.

But, Democrats are ferociously attacking CoD as hard as they attacked Scott Brown in Massachusetts. If she is so far behind, what is the point in beating up on this woman?

This is anecdotal, but I think I know why they are doing this…just like with Hottie McAwesome there are internals showing O’Donnell ahead.

Today I talked to a friend from Team Hillary who is a big Dem fundraiser. He told me that for the last week or so the DNC has been at DEFCON 1 leaning HARD on the rainmakers because they are terrified of a CoD win in Delaware.

and this:

We have seen reliable polling that shows O’Donnell is within single digits, and Coons can’t break 50%. What is more, these polls rely on a turn-out model that is relatively conservative and, contrary to what pundits think, a much higher than normal turn-out could mean the polls are off by as much as 5-6 or more points. In the primary, most polls showed O’Donnell down by a few or tied, however she won by 6 points, a figure higher than most of the pre-vote polls and outside of their margin of error.

Why is this happening, and why might the pundits, once again, have egg on their face on election day?

Voters in Delaware are learning from reliable internet sources, despite a near blackout by the elite political press, more and more about Coons and his record.

One is right and one is wrong, but I can’t forget the Globe polls that showed Martha Coakley up 15 points:

Coakley’s lead grows to 17 points – 53 percent to 36 percent – when undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included in the tally. The results indicate that Brown has a steep hill to climb to pull off an upset in the Jan. 19 election. Indeed, the poll indicated that nearly two-thirds of Brown’s supporters believe Coakley will win.

and of course my favorite of all newspaper quotes:

The Mainstream media knows all

Somebody is right here and somebody is wrong here, by this time next week we will find out.

Update: Of course liberals always use these tactics when up 15 pts don’t they?

Camillus NY 10:30 A.M. Oct 18, 2010 (via Ithaca NY 1:32 p.m. at the house of Legal Insurrection)

Stacy & I hit the Ann Marie Buerkle Press conference in front of a small mall in Camillus NY today

Stacy Takes Notes

The Press was there to hear what she had to say:

the press sets up for the conference

Buerkle bluntly stated that congressman Maffei was misrepresenting the fact.

Buerkle addresses the press

The idea is he is desperate to change the subject from his own voting record. This would not be a surprise as democrats in trouble have been running from their votes and the voters all over the country this year.

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As for the “interesting” poll that shows her down, she pointed out bluntly that Maffei has not released polls all year, considering that she has been neck and neck for a while the idea that he suddenly has a 12 point lead is…”interesting“. Then again this is the same polling service that padded Rick Lazlio’s by 19 points and was 38 points off on Paladino in the primary.

I know its near Halloween, but if Maffei & the Mainstream Media are going to give out Whoppers…

Much better Whoppers than the MSM or Maffei's campaign are delivering this Halloween


…I suggest these instead.

I will have video uploaded as soon as I’m able, meanwhile next stop Pa-10!

Update: Stacy’s video uploaded faster than mine, here is his take at the blog and his spectator piece on it.

At the press conference, Buerkle introduced one of her tenants – a hairstyling salon owner named Andre – and said his situation exemplifies the economic problems of the 25th District that she hopes to address in Congress. “Andre represents one of those hard-working Americans who takes a risk. He spends days in his salon working hard to be successful. And Andre and all the other small businesses in upstate New York . . . need Washington to get out of the way.”

Meanwhile I’ve managed to get a quick video of people reacting before the press conference up:

The grass roots are very green here and will likely grow to a bumper crop come Nov 2nd.

Update 2: Here is Ann Marie Buerkle at the press conference: