I’ve talked a bit about the difference between what a poll might say vs actual actions.
Forgetting the splits lets see how this actually works in practice in a couple of blue states:
Getting a gay marriage bill through the Rhode Island House of Representatives with Gov. Lincoln Chafee’s support and a new openly gay House speaker was supposed to be a cakewalk. Instead, as The Boston Phoenix (an alternative paper) reports: “The end game is proving trickier than advocates had hoped. … They’ve been caught off guard by the prowess of the church, which has joined with the nation’s leading anti-gay marriage group to mount a surprisingly potent defense of the status quo.”
And in Maryland another deep blue state things are getting interesting too:
This week in Maryland, black Democrats from progressive districts are beginning to jump ship. First Melvin Stukes, a co-sponsor of a gay marriage bill in that state’s House of Delegates, unexpectedly announced he was switching sides.
A few days later, two black Democrats counted as “yes” votes suddenly went missing, refusing to show up for a committee vote, which had to be postponed.
Maryland is a deep blue state — core Democratic territory — but opposition to gay marriage is also surging
And the reason?
The reaction has been extraordinary! The black church in particular has risen to this occasion in an extraordinary way. Whose vision and whose values count to the Democratic leadership in the Maryland legislature, black pastors are asking? Well, maybe this week they will find out!
If the trends where with them the democrats would not have the trouble they are having. It’s precisely because they don’t have the numbers that it’s necessary to push without public support.