Flash Poll weighed in favor of Democrats 3/2 favors Obama!

Posted: January 20, 2011 in internet/free speech, media, opinion/news
Tags: , , , , ,

Morning Joe et/al is breathlessly reporting that the president’s number are up, that a slight majority favor keeping Obamacare and things are turning around for the pres.

The media is all over this but if you look at the actual report there is a set of numbers not getting play:

Q15 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.”) (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.”)
Strong Democrat ………………………….20
Not very strong Democrat ……………..11
Independent/lean Democrat …………..10
Strictly Independent………………………18
Independent/lean Republican …………11
Not very strong Republican ……………9
Strong Republican ………………………..12
Other (VOL) …………………………………7
Not sure …………………………………….2

So let’s get this straight, this poll of Registered (vs likely) voters that is showing the president’s numbers improving samples 31% democrats (or 41% counting learners) and 21% Republicans (32% counting learners). And you are judging national opinion on this? You are calling this news?

Think of it this way. If you had a poll on the popularity of the Red Sox vs the Yankees and asked 3 Guys from Boston for every 2 guys from New York City how would the Red Sox do?

This is what you call spin. The media manufacturing a story to create a bounce that doesn’t actually exist.

If people fall for this it is their own fault.

Comments
  1. Roxeanne de Luca says:

    For the first time since 1946, people picked up more GOP ballots in the primaries than Dem ballots – and did so by a margin of 4 million.

    Try sampling three conservatives for every two liberals to see what is going on.

  2. […] you that these are nationwide numbers, that the poll’s methodology looks screwy — Da Tech Guy thinks the sample is not exacfly random – and that the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary will not be determined […]

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  4. […] let me remind you that these are nationwide numbers, that the poll’s methodology looks screwy — Da Tech Guy thinks the sample is not exacfly random – and that the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary will not be determined by […]

  5. karipei says:

    Michelle Bachman is a perfect example for why we need to invest more in teachers.