Yes E.D. Kain Wisconsin is the Republican Waterloo…

Posted: March 11, 2011 in opinion/news, politics
Tags: , , , , , ,

…they are playing the role of Wellington.

Was it only 48 hours ago that liberals buoyed by polls and news reports were convinced that Scott Walker and the republicans were about to back down?

Now not even one day after they were proved spectacularly wrong the left has decided on a new meme to replace the old one that didn’t seem to work. Apparently now this vote is a case of political suicide for Republicans. E. D. Kain is convinced this will be their doom:

And now conservatives have chosen public-sector workers and teachers as their hill to die on. They have followed the most radical voices in the party and the movement, and elected Scott Walker, Rick Scott, and various other Tea Party candidates. Heavily funded by big campaign donors like the Koch brothers and other corporate interests, the Republican party has made a concerted effort across the country to take on unions, public pensions, and social services for the poor.

It is to laugh. Apparently E. D. hasn’t figured out that the “interest” that public unions fight against is…”the public” that is the taxpayer.

Richard Trukma is also playing the lemons into lemonade game as Jennifer Epstein reports:

While blasting Walker and Wisconsin’s Republican legislators for their “absolute corruption of democracy” in passing an anti-labor bill, the leader of the nation’s largest union group thanked the governor for getting activists fired up. “We probbably should have invited him here today to receive the Mobilizer of the Year Award,” Trumka said Thursday morning while speaking to the National Press Club in Washington D.C. “Wisconsin is the beginning — it’s pushing the start button” for pro-labor activism.

Right, he mobilized people so well that unions had to bus in supporters and were unable to match anything near tea party numbers in national rallies across the country.

Let’s cut to the chase here. The unions went all in here because they understand what is at stake, not bargaining, but the political clout that the union monies bring the leadership and the democrats who reward them with those monies. This is was what the unions were defending. That’s why they were willing to give up so much to avoid this vote.

Think about what it has cost the Democrats/unions:

1. War Chests: The three weeks of protesting had to have been a drain on both union and democratic funds. The monies they claim to have raised are not insignificant but they have not reported the expenses of their national campaigns. I would not be surprised if the funds raised are not sufficient to cover what they’ve already spent. In fact they will need the extra money to fight in all the other states that, seeing the union defeat in Wisconsin, will find themselves willing to take them on.

2. The schedule: Unfortunately for democrats this took place at the beginning of the term of Governor Walker. This means that this plan will have time to make the difference in the state economy meaning the voters will be able to see actual results by the time he is facing re-election. The unions are making a lot of fuss about recall efforts forgetting that recall efforts are also being placed against democratic lawmakers who actually fled the state as well. Those efforts will not reverse the bill nor did they manage to intimidate the lawmakers in question.

3. Voting with their dues: Even worse for the unions is the reality that the state is no longer obliged to collect union dues for them. The compulsion is gone. Legal Insurrection has it nailed:

The vote will be taken with the feet of tens of thousands of Wisconsin public employee union members, who will have the choice for the first time in memory of deciding whether to join the union and pay the union dues, which have been estimated in the $700-1000 per year range.

The public employees will have to make a choice, take a pay increase or pay the union.

I think we know how that vote will turn out, and whether the employees — once given a choice — will buy what the unions are selling.

I think the unions knew how this vote will come out too. That’s why they decided to die on this hill. They understand that where union membership is not compulsory it has dropped like a rock. They understand that this vote will be before any election and will signal nationwide how weak and narrow their actual support is within their own ranks.

4. Public Opinion:
That’s the other card that the unions and the media tried to play. I’m going to make the wild assumption that the office holders of Wisconsin are no more brave that other office holders across the nation. If they actually believed that they were going to suffer the public harm that the unions and the media insist they are going to get, don’t you think that they would have backed down? I think they didn’t back down not because they were any more courageous than other polls, I think they knew how to count and saw the protests for what they were and acted accordingly. As I’ve said, if the unions were convinced it would have resulted in a huge turnaround (particularly in an election year with Obama on the top of the ticket) they would have acted differently.

5. The visuals: This is the big one. The visuals of this protest favored the tea parties and the governor from the start and continue to do so. People don’t like to see their capital occupied, or doors handcuffed shut or people threatened with death, or their legislators running away. There is supposedly a big protest with Michael Moore this weekend. Yup Michael Moore and Jessie Jackson are really going to be able to sell this nationally. As I said in my examiner piece yesterday:

There has been an awful lot of video shot of the Wisconsin protests, there has been even more taken of both tea party protests and tea party meetings. The question becomes: which set of images are more likely to elicit the support of the majority of the American Populace? We will find out in 2012.

The only thing the Wisconsin democratic protesters and the tea party protesters have in common is both will likely be prominently featured in GOP ads in 2012. I’m sure the death threats against the Wisconsin legislators and those against Scott Walker (some actually signed on twitter) are going to go over real well come election day.

6. Bigger Events: Even if the unions want to keep the pressure on unfortunately for them bigger events are overtaking them, the rising costs of Gas, the war in Libya, and the national budget battles are going to trump any attempt to keep the furor up in anyone except for the truest of true believers.

E.D. Kain is trying to pull the Albert Sidney Johnston who with insufficient military to stop a union advance, used propaganda to keep the enemy thinking he was stronger than he was.

My advice to the Republicans? It hasn’t changed: Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell!

Update: Yup that should have said Albert Sidney Johnston, thanks to Edward for the Catch.

Update 2:
Unsurprisingly the NYT doesn’t get it but Obi Wan does.

Comments
  1. Don says:

    Nailed it. What unions fear most is losing the power to compel membership. It should be fairly obvious in a short time how important the unions are to Wisconsin’s teachers. They will scream and cry about the loss of “rights” to collectively bargain as if it were some type of natural right, handed down by God. What is really going to hurt them is being forced to collect their own dues instead of the state siphoning off a little bit every week, members will have to start handing over cash to their union bosses. I’d wager there are going to be quite a few grumbles.

    Liberals love freedom to choose except when it comes to your tax rates and union membership.

  2. The Tiger says:

    “It was a damned near-run thing.”

  3. paul says:

    Very good analysis.

  4. Lazarus Long says:

    “While blasting Walker and Wisconsin’s Republican legislators for their “absolute corruption of democracy”….”

    If you want to know what a reactionary leftist is actually doing, read the accusations they hurl at the opposition.

    And who will play the Foot Guards to stop the attack of the Imperial Guard?

  5. Countrylawyer says:

    And who will be opening for Mssrs. Moore and Jackson at this rally? Spinal Tap, maybe? Get the crowd good and warmed up, they will.

  6. Vinny Vidivici says:

    Always be suspicious of ‘advice’ offered by opponents who couldn’t possibly be interested in helping you avoid failure, especially when your failure would mean their success.

    In this case, it’s Kain’s and Trumka, who should otherwise remain silent if what they say is true. Why tip off a ‘blundering’ opponent, unless the ‘blunder’ is a memetic construct?

  7. John Allyn says:

    Tech guy . . . I am impressed with the Albert Sidney Johnston reference. Not many people can make a knowing reference to the situation in the Confederate West in the fall of 1861. But remember that Shiloh, which was the end result of Johnston’s obfuscations, was a near-run thing.

  8. BoBo from Texas says:

    Elections have consequences.

    We won.

    I just love this Hope&Change thing.

  9. TJA says:

    Scott Brown won a load of union household votes in Mass.

  10. no, not THAT Glenn says:

    John Allyn: Not to mention the Phil Sheridan quote. Obviously daTechGuy knows his history, probably wasn’t even thrown by “party like it’s 1773.”

  11. Tertium Quid says:

    CSA General Albert Sidney Johnston died at the Battle of Shiloh in 1862. Shot in the thigh, he bled to death.

    CSA General Joe Johnston is today more famous. During the Peninusular Campaign in 1862, Union General George McClellan acted cautiously, convinced he was outnumbered almost 2 to 1 when the reverse was true. Joe Johnston was wounded in the foot at the Battle of Seven Days, and someone by the name of Lee took command in Virginia.

  12. Don says:

    BTW, I like your advice. Ride right through them, they’re demoralized as hell!

    It creates a feeling of…..satisfaction.

  13. edward says:

    Great article and analysis but it is Albert Sidney JohnsTon with a T. Common mistake, I only know it as I married a Johnston who father is a Civil War buff.

    feel free to delete this post after your correct.

  14. richard40 says:

    So lets see now. Dem legislators have fled the state, not doing the main job they were hired for, voting. Union thugs obstruct hallways and entrances, shout down debate in the chamber, and issue death threats. The repubs use an entirely legal procedural move to pass the bill despite these obstructions. But it is the repubs that are subverting democracy??? How can these idiots stomache uttering this drivel, or the MSM listen to it uncruitically.

  15. […] Yes E.D. Kain Wisconsin is the Republican Waterloo… E.D. Kain is trying to pull the Albert Sidney Johnson who with insufficient military to stop a union advance, used propaganda to keep the enemy thinking he was stronger than he was. […]

  16. Duke of DeLand says:

    Check it out……….Yesterday in Florida, while the nation watch WI…..The Florida Senate passed by a large margin a bill to remove teacher tenure for all hired after June 2011. The teachers will be paid according to student achievement!

    The bill is anticipated to easily pass the Florida House, and Gov. Scott will sign it…..

    The march is on!

  17. Thomas says:

    UXBRIDGE: (looking down) By God, Sir, I’ve lost my leg.
    WELLINGTON: By God, Sir…so you have.

  18. KarenT says:

    WHAT? Union dues will NO LONGER BE COMPULSORY? Union members have to CHOOSE to support the unions?

    What a disaster for those union fat cats who will now have to actually provide valuable services to their constituents beyond sluicing money directly from the taxpayers to the politicians against whom they negotiate.

  19. […] Wisconsin è la Waterloo dei repubblicani… DaTechGuy (Peter Ingemi) Originale (in inglese): DaTechGuy Traduzione in italiano: Luca A. […]

  20. John says:

    What is interesting now id that for the first time, the union leadership and the union members are on opposite sides of the negotiating table concerning membership and dues. When the union starts getting surly and begins to try to muscle teachers to stay in the union, the teachers themselves will be on the receiving end for a change.

    They are not going to like how that feels. There will be much water-cooler talk about “did you see what they did to Charlie when he said he wouldn’t join?”

  21. Becky says:

    Like the unions in WI, Johnston was believed to be fatally shot by his own side. And even after he was shot, he kept fighting, unaware the wound was fatal.

    Such a shame we can’t make that union pun work a bit better….:-)

  22. Becky says:

    Sigh: just so someone some where doesn’t misunderstand my above reference, I am only saying that I think that the unions may have shot themselves in the foot (leg) here and as they keep on fighting they only make their condition worse. They don’t have the numbers on their side.

  23. […] Yes E.D. Kain Wisconsin is the Republican Waterloo… …they are playing the role of Wellington. […]

  24. […] I should mention that Da Techguy read the tea . . . loaves correctly regarding Moore’s MadTown appearance. Here’s his read on Wisconsin. […]

  25. Noreen Wood says:

    The unions at one time were necessary. Coal,steel,textiles, etc. Now the unions are reaping in the harvest that many a worker funded. The union heads that have lived off of the workers for years are running scared because their large salaries are being threatened. Yes the unions mostly put Obama in office and they have been rewarded with many benefits that the normal working person doesn’t get. I don’t know what this country is coming to……it doesn’t seem like my country any more.